Building off yesterday postings of the current point standings through 19 races, I decided to check in how I’m predictions from the beginning of the year are panning out and add commentary on how they’re doing.
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Carl Edwards
The Present: 1st
The Prediction: 11th
The Difference: +10 spots
The Rundown: I should have known better, he finished 2010 strong and has kept the gas peddle down in 2011. So far has led the points for 13 out of the 19 races, regaining it this past weekend at New Hampshire. Bad runs at Pocono and Daytona four weeks apart allowed the gap to the competition to close. He’s putting all the contract talk out of his mind and not letting it effect him on track.
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Jimmie Johnson
The Present: 2nd
The Prediction: 1st
The Difference: -1 spots
The Rundown: Johnson hasn’t nailed down his consistency just yet, longest stretch of top 10 finishes has only been three in a row, but even with that he’s still second in points. If only others could be so lucky, but that is the sign of a championship team. Their bad runs are other team’s good runs.
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Kurt Busch
The Present: 3rd
The Prediction: 12th
The Difference: +9 spots
The Rundown: A surprising third for a driver who went through a stretch of finishes of 17, 16, 10, 18, 22, 27, and 14. Had he not had to scream himself stupid at Richmond to get changes at Penske, he might be out front with a comfortable lead in the points. Still in third place and can strike if the momentum can keep up.
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Kevin Harvick
The Present: 4th
The Prediction: 4th
The Difference: Even
The Rundown: My first of four picks that have been correct, well, for now. A lot of people (including Greg) were willing to write of 2011 as a hangover from 2010 which saw him finish third in the points. I thought (and still do) he could maintain that same level of performance. He has three wins already (combined laps led? 9 there’s your trivia for the day), but needs to rebound from the last two races that had finishes of 16th and 21st.
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Kyle Busch
The Present: 5th
The Prediction: 3rd
The Difference: -2 spots
The Rundown: I thought we saw a more mature Kyle Busch at the beginning of the year, and I was wrong. That’s what bumped him to third in my predictions, but the lesson as always is all Kyle Busch does is win. Three wins so far this year in the Cup Series and just got his 100th overall for his career. He’s got three DNF’s so far and coming off a 36th place finish at New Hampshire that needs some work.
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Matt Kenseth
The Present: 6th
The Prediction: 7th
The Difference: -1 spots
The Rundown: I know Mark Martin still races, but Kenseth has taken over his mentor’s role in the Cup Series. The driver no one seems to talk about until the end of the race then he’s randomly up front. He’s put down some good stretches of finishes, but keeps getting derailed every couple of races. He finished 20th at New Hampshire, which was his worst finish since race 10 at Darlington (25th).
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Jeff Gordon
The Present: 7th
The Prediction: 2nd
The Difference: -5 spots
The Rundown: I was certainly drinking the Hendrick Motorsports Kool-Aid at the beginning of the year, thought it would be a magical year for Gordon and his crew. So far, there’s been plenty of downs, but the ups include two wins, like other drivers has to iron out some sort of consistency but is on the right track since Sears Point (2nd, 6th, 10th, and 11th).
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Ryan Newman
The Present: 8th
The Prediction: 10th
The Difference: +2 spots
The Rundown: Newman has enjoyed a non-Newman like year, that is instead of winning a bunch of poles and disappearing during the race, he’s qualifying near the top and finding his way into the top five at the end of races. More races than not, I’m like “woah, here’d Ryan come from! Hooray!”
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Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
The Present: 9th
The Prediction: 26th
The Difference: +17 spots
The Rundown: I had Junior pegged for dead in the water, not going anywhere this year. He started strong, but since Michigan has really struggled (21, 41, 19, 30, and 15). Does this continue or does he get back to the beginning of the year where he rattled off eight top 10s in 14 races?
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Tony Stewart
The Present: 10th
The Prediction: 5th
The Difference: -5 spots
The Rundown: Smoke has had an up and down year so far, last week’s 2nd place finish might be the sign of things to come. He’s been a yo-yo out there, either contending for the win, finishing in the 30s, or just being mid pack. Looks like Stewart-Haas Racing has turned the corner, for one week at least.
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Denny Hamlin
The Present: 11th
The Prediction: 6th
The Difference: -5 spots
The Rundown: Can you say hangover from 2010? This was supposed to be where Kevin Harvick lied if you trusted the “experts.” I was fooled too, I felt he’d drop off but not to this extent. He’s got a win, which will go far in securing a Chase spot, but there is no consistency at all to this season for him.
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Clint Bowyer
The Present: 12th
The Prediction: 8th
The Difference: -4 spots
The Rundown: Life at Richard Childress Racing is very puzzling right now for a few reasons. Whispers of Bowyer moving on are happening and you have four teams and four very different stories. Harvick is performing where he should, Bowyer is under performing, Paul Menard is over performing, and Jeff Burton is MIA. Bowyer is coming off three straight bad performances, including two crashes. I can’t see this continuing, but you never know.
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David Ragan
The Present: 13th
The Prediction: 25th
The Difference: +12 spots
The Rundown: He got his win so maybe he’d be out of my dog house. Not just yet, he does have confidence on his side since the win but I’m still banking on things returning to “normal” very soon for the Georgia native.
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Greg Biffle
The Present: 14th
The Prediction: 14th
The Difference: Even
The Rundown: My second great pick, just don’t do anything Biff, stay where you’re at! Except odds are he should move up with how he’s been running this year.
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Kasey Kahne
The Present: 15th
The Prediction: 9th
The Difference: -6 spots
The Rundown: I swung and struck out on this pick, I thought Kahne plus a Red Bull team that wanted to show what it was worth would be a good combo, even just for a year. I was wrong, he’s had good outings (Richmond, Darlington, Daytona, and New Hampshire for example) but with this whole Red Bull leaving how will the team be effected? Hopefully there’s no giving up and they’ll perform, but still 17 more races to go. That’s a long time to worry about next year and beyond for the crews.
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A.J. Allmendinger
The Present: 16th
The Prediction: 24th
The Difference: +8 spots
The Rundown: ‘Dinger is doing a decent job in the famous number 43 this year. He’s not had too many great runs, but he’s been pretty consistent from 9th to 17th all year long. This team will only get better as time goes on and benefiting from the less is more mentality.
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Juan Pablo Montoya
The Present: 17th
The Prediction: 19th
The Difference: +2 spots
The Rundown: Marred in no man’s land, Montoya just recently changed up crew chiefs to change up his luck. With him and Jamie McMurray struggling mightily, more changes might be on the horizon for these teams.
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Joey Logano
The Present: 18th
The Prediction: 20th
The Difference: +2 spots
The Rundown: Talk has intensified about Logano losing his current ride and he’s responded surprisingly well with finishes of 6, 3, 14, and 4 the last four weeks. Could this all be for naught as Carl Edwards makes his decision? Or is Sliced Bread auditioning for other teams?
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Paul Menard
The Present: 19th
The Prediction: 27th
The Difference: +8 spots
The Rundown: Menard is over performing as a whole this year. After ranking as high as 5th in points, he’s been on a steady decline, sliding to 19th presently. I think he needs a year to adjust to driving real equipment for once and should be good at the end of the year again, building momentum for 2012.
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Mark Martin
The Present: 20th
The Prediction: 15th
The Difference: -5 spots
The Rundown: Definitely not how he probably envisioned leaving Hendrick Motorsports with such a confusing season. He has one top 10 in the last eight races and has slipped from 11th in points down to 20th where he sits for now. But you can’t keep this cagey veteran down and he’s not the biggest MIA driver out there.
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Marcos Ambrose
The Present: 21st
The Prediction: 23rd
The Difference: +2 spots
The Rundown: Marcos got into a hole early in the season and has pretty much gotten into a groove out there. Which may or may not be good, he’s been 21st in points for five of the past six weeks. He’s got Watkins Glen coming up so that could help him rise a bit in the standings.
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Martin Truex, Jr.
The Present: 22nd
The Prediction: 18th
The Difference: -4 spots
The Rundown: Did not really see this coming for Truex or Reutimann. I foresaw them having better runs than these, Truex’s best finish has been a sixth at Las Vegas, aka race number three. Expect more changes in that organization.
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Brad Keselowski
The Present: 23rd
The Prediction: 22nd
The Difference: -1 spots
The Rundown: He was able to fuel mileage himself into a win at Kansas and has shown some promise, but is still a long ways away from teammate Kurt Busch. Needs to vault himself into the top 20 to even think about a Chase possibility with that one win.
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David Reutimann
The Present: 24th
The Prediction: 21st
The Difference: -3 spots
The Rundown: See Truex, he’s got that second place finish at Kentucky, but looking over his results, um, nothing much more there.
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Jeff Burton
The Present: 25th
The Prediction: 17th
The Difference: -8 spots
The Rundown: You want to talk about a drop off, Burton doesn’t have a top ten all year. His best finish has been a pair of 11th place efforts at Texas and Dover. This is certainly not what everyone expected when he, Caterpillar, and Richard Childress extended their deals. Do I sense Austin Dillon getting the call to Cup a tad earlier than planned?
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Brian Vickers
The Present: 26th
The Prediction: 13th
The Difference: -13 spots
The Rundown: Like his teammate Kahne, I expected this to be the year of the Red Bull. Instead it’s going to be the year of the retreating Red Bull. Vickers further can’t catch a break on or off the track, which is leading to a very disappointing season.
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Regan Smith
The Present: 27th
The Prediction: 30th
The Difference: +3 spots
The Rundown: The good, Regan Smith got his first victory and didn’t have it taken away because of some stupid rules infractions. The bad, he’s 27th in points with no shot at 20th and the wild card for the Chase. The team has qualifying down pat, now they need to focus on finishing higher in races.
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Bobby Labonte
The Present: 28th
The Prediction: 28th
The Difference: Even
The Rundown: Got this one spot on, but a little disappointed with it. Labonte has run extremely well considering he’s wasted the last few years and is showing he still has it. Like Smith, he just doesn’t have much luck in finishing the races where he’s running during them.
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Jamie McMurray
The Present: 29th
The Prediction: 16th
The Difference: -13 spots
The Rundown: The reason we have wild cards now for the Chase can’t get out of his own way out there. He doesn’t have the wins like last year to lessen the blow of running so badly week in and week out. He’s got Indy this weekend at least to look forward too.
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David Gilliland
The Present: 30th
The Prediction: 29th
The Difference: -1 spots
The Rundown: Gilliland is giving it the old scouts try out there. He’s got a 3rd at Daytona and 9th at Talladega, too bad these’s 32 races not run at those tracks.
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Dave Blaney
The Present: 31st
The Prediction: 32nd
The Difference: +1 spots
The Rundown: He’s got sponsorship and they won’t have to worry about letting kids eat free with their promotion for if Dave scores a top ten. That isn’t happening any time soon, even at the plate tracks, someone will ruin it for him.
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Casey Mears
The Present: 32nd
The Prediction: 33rd
The Difference: +1 spots
The Rundown: Despite all the GEICO lettering on this car, it is not fully funded. That’s why Mears has started and parked three races so far, look for that number to grow. At least he’s in the top 35…for now.
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Andy Lally
The Present: 33rd
The Prediction: None
The Difference: N/A
The Rundown: Your 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Rookie of the Year. So he’s got that going for him, just don’t point out to Andy no one else went for that award.
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Robby Gordon
The Present: 34th
The Prediction: None
The Difference: N/A
The Rundown: Robby seems bored with this NASCAR thing, he’ll race at Indy and Watkins Glen, but who knows where else. He’s been handing off driving duties to Scott Wimmer and going and running other series. On the plus Speed Energy is a delicious energy drink, get it now at GNC locations.
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Tony Raines
The Present: 35th
The Prediction: None
The Difference: N/A
The Rundown: Remember when he ran for Hall of Fame Racing and the #96 DLP car, those were fun times.
Bill Elliott
The Present: 36th
The Prediction: None
The Difference: N/A
The Rundown: Only ran the first five races for Phoenix Racing before giving way to Landon Cassill, who for some dumb reason, didn’t check off Sprint Cup on his license so no points for him.
J.J. Yeley
The Present: 37th
The Prediction: 37th
The Difference: Even
The Rundown: Remember when he ran for Hall of Fame Racing and the #96 DLP car, those were fun times.
Ken Schrader
The Present: 38th
The Prediction: None
The Difference: N/A
The Rundown: Remember when he ran for Hall of Fame Racing and the #96 DLP car, those were fun times.
Terry Labonte
The Present: 39th
The Prediction: None
The Difference: N/A
The Rundown: Remember when he ran for Hall of Fame Racing and the #96 DLP car, those were fun times. I enjoy that this bit worked for four drivers nearly in a row.
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Michael McDowell
The Present: 40th
The Prediction: 36th
The Difference: -5 spots
The Rundown: Despite running 13 more races than Texas Terry, 12 more than Schrader and Elliott, McDowell finds himself BEHIND them in points. On the plus, he’s home in time to watch the end of the race then pass out watching Tivo’d episodes of Laverne & Shirley while eating a can of Beeforoni.
My favorite car that EVERYONE drove!!
